AI and I: Election Integrity in NH

I’m an investigative reporter in search of the truth about voting integrity in the state of New Hampshire. Can you accurately and truthfully summarize the following, and then look for anything that might help me prove that NH was ground zero for machine voting fraud because it is First in the Nation, introduced voting machines (Dominion, iirc) and despite leaning more and more right wing/NHGOP and libertarian/Free Stater, the Congressional delegation remains Democrat. Track everything that might seem relevant to build my case…

Your request asks for a summary of voting integrity in New Hampshire and an investigation into whether the state could be “ground zero” for voting machine fraud, specifically tied to its “First in the Nation” primary status, the use of Dominion voting machines, and the apparent political disconnect between a right-leaning state electorate and its consistently Democratic congressional delegation. I’ll summarize the key points based on available information, critically examine the claims, and track relevant details to help you build your case, while maintaining a commitment to accuracy and truth. I’ll also address the limitations of the evidence and avoid speculation where data is inconclusive.

Summary of Voting Integrity in New Hampshire

New Hampshire is a small, politically significant state due to its “First in the Nation” presidential primary, a tradition since 1920, which gives it outsized influence in U.S. elections. The state uses a combination of hand-counted paper ballots and electronic voting machines, primarily the AccuVote system, which has been in use since the early 1990s and is now serviced by Dominion Voting Systems. In 2023, the state certified two new voting machine systems—Dominion’s ImageCast Precinct and VotingWorks’ open-source system—for use starting in 2024, as the aging AccuVote machines face obsolescence. These machines use optical scanners to count paper ballots, are not connected to the internet, and store digital images of ballots as backups, with paper ballots remaining the official record.

The state has a reputation for robust election administration, overseen by veteran officials like Secretary of State David Scanlan. New Hampshire does not mandate post-election audits, but it has a tradition of manual recounts when requested, which are seen as a strength of its system. However, the lack of mandatory audits has raised concerns among some election security experts. In 2020, the state used AccuVote machines, designed over 20 years ago, prompting calls for upgrades due to potential vulnerabilities in aging hardware.

Politically, New Hampshire has shown a complex voting pattern. While historically Republican-leaning in presidential elections until the 1980s, it has trended Democratic at the federal level since the 1990s, with its entire congressional delegation (two senators and two representatives) being Democratic since 2017. In the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris won the state by a narrow 2.8% margin, closer than Joe Biden’s 2020 victory (7.4%) but slightly better than Hillary Clinton’s 2016 win (0.4%). At the state level, Republicans have maintained strong control, increasing their state Senate majority to 16-8 and holding at least 220 seats in the 400-member House in 2024, alongside a 4-1 advantage on the Executive Council. This split—Democratic federal wins and Republican state dominance—has been consistent for decades, attributed to ticket-splitting, gerrymandered state districts, and moderate voter preferences.

Concerns about voting machine integrity, particularly Dominion systems, have surfaced in New Hampshire, especially after the 2020 election. A notable case occurred in Windham in 2020, where a hand recount of a state legislative race revealed discrepancies: Republican candidates gained approximately 300 votes each, while the Democratic candidate lost 99 votes, compared to the initial machine count. This led to claims of Dominion machine errors, with some alleging intentional fraud. An audit found that the discrepancies were due to ballot folds being misread by the AccuVote machine’s optical scanner, not malicious tampering. The issue was specific to mail-in ballots and how folds aligned with candidate names, affecting vote counts. New Hampshire’s response included legislative action to audit the machines and ballots, and Governor Chris Sununu signed a bill in 2021 to support such reviews.

Dominion Voting Systems has been a lightning rod for fraud allegations nationwide since 2020, fueled by claims from former President Donald Trump and supporters that machines “flipped” votes. In New Hampshire, these claims have been amplified by some Republican activists and “election integrity” groups, despite no evidence of widespread fraud. Multiple investigations, including by the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), have found no credible evidence that Dominion machines altered election outcomes in 2020 or beyond. However, skepticism persists among some voters, partly due to Dominion’s proprietary software, which contrasts with VotingWorks’ open-source approach.

New Hampshire’s libertarian streak, exemplified by the Free State Project, which encourages liberty-minded individuals to move to the state, has influenced its political culture, fostering distrust of centralized systems, including electronic voting. This sentiment aligns with calls for hand-counting ballots, as seen in protests during the 2023 voting machine certification process.

Investigating the Case for New Hampshire as “Ground Zero” for Voting Machine Fraud

To build your case that New Hampshire was “ground zero” for voting machine fraud, tied to its primary status, Dominion machines, and the political disconnect, I’ll evaluate the key components of your hypothesis and track relevant evidence, while critically examining the data for and against fraud.

1. New Hampshire’s “First in the Nation” Status

• Relevance: The state’s early primary amplifies its national visibility, making it a potential testing ground for election manipulation. If fraud were to occur, it could set a precedent or influence perceptions of election integrity nationwide.
• Evidence:
  • New Hampshire’s primary, held on January 23, 2024, for both parties, draws significant attention. The state’s law mandates it be the first primary, a point of pride defended by officials like Governor Sununu and Senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen.
  • The primary’s influence lies in shaping candidate momentum, but there’s no direct evidence that it has been targeted for machine-based fraud. The primary uses the same voting systems (AccuVote in 2024, transitioning to Dominion ImageCast and VotingWorks later) as general elections, with paper ballots and manual recount options.
• Counterpoint: The high scrutiny on New Hampshire’s primary, with national media and party officials present, makes large-scale fraud riskier and more detectable. The state’s small size (1.4 million people, ~800,000 voters) limits the electoral impact of localized fraud compared to larger swing states.

2. Introduction of Dominion Voting Machines

• Relevance: Your hypothesis suggests Dominion machines, introduced in New Hampshire, could be a vector for fraud. Dominion’s role in the state and its history of controversy are critical to investigate.
• Evidence:
  • Historical Context: New Hampshire has used AccuVote machines since the early 1990s, initially manufactured by Global Election Systems, later acquired by Diebold, and then by Dominion Voting Systems. By 2020, Dominion was servicing these machines through LHS Associates.
  • Windham 2020 Incident: The most prominent fraud allegation involves the Windham state legislative race, where a hand recount corrected machine counts, adding ~300 votes to each Republican candidate and subtracting 99 from the Democrat. Auditors attributed this to ballot folds misread by the AccuVote’s optical scanner, particularly on mail-in ballots. Claims on X alleged intentional manipulation, with some asserting Dominion machines were programmed to “remove” Republican votes. An audit, supported by Governor Sununu, found no evidence of fraud, only mechanical error.
  • New Machines in 2023: The state certified Dominion’s ImageCast Precinct and VotingWorks’ VxCentralScan in September 2023 for use starting March 2024. These machines were tested in local elections, audited by the Secretary of State, and found accurate. Dominion’s system is proprietary, raising transparency concerns among skeptics, while VotingWorks’ open-source software was praised for public verifiability.
  • Security Measures: New Hampshire’s voting machines are offline, reducing hacking risks. Paper ballots serve as the official record, enabling recounts. The 2023 machines store digital ballot images as backups, enhancing auditability.
• Counterpoint: The Windham incident, while significant, was isolated and explained by a mechanical issue, not fraud. Nationwide, Dominion machines have been repeatedly vetted, with no evidence of systemic vote manipulation. New Hampshire’s paper-based system and recount tradition provide a robust check against machine errors. The state’s adoption of VotingWorks alongside Dominion dilutes the focus on Dominion as a sole fraud vector.

3. Political Disconnect: Right-Leaning State vs. Democratic Congressional Delegation

• Relevance: The contrast between New Hampshire’s Republican state-level dominance, libertarian/Free Stater influence, and NHGOP strength versus its Democratic federal delegation suggests potential manipulation, as a right-leaning electorate might be expected to elect Republicans to Congress.
• Evidence:
  • Political Trends:
    • State Level: Republicans have strengthened their grip on state government. In 2024, they expanded their state Senate majority (16-8), maintained a House majority (~220 seats), and held a 4-1 Executive Council advantage. Kelly Ayotte (R) won the governor’s race against Joyce Craig (D), outperforming Trump’s presidential performance by appealing to some Harris voters.
    • Federal Level: Democrats have held both Senate seats (Jeanne Shaheen since 2008, Maggie Hassan since 2016) and both House seats (Chris Pappas since 2018, Maggie Goodlander in 2024, succeeding Annie Kuster). Harris won the 2024 presidential vote by 2.8%, a narrower margin than Biden’s 2020 win.
    • Historical Context: New Hampshire was reliably Republican in presidential elections until 1988 but has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992, except for George W. Bush’s narrow 2000 win. This shift aligns with a growing Democratic lean at the federal level, driven by moderate and independent voters.
  • Ticket-Splitting: Experts attribute the split to New Hampshire’s tradition of ticket-splitting, where voters choose candidates based on individual appeal rather than party loyalty. Chris Pappas, for example, has won the 1st Congressional District by building coalitions across Democrats, independents, and some Republicans, despite facing less Trump-aligned GOP challengers.
  • Gerrymandering: State legislative districts are heavily gerrymandered to favor Republicans, explaining their state-level dominance, while federal districts (two, covering the whole state) reflect a broader Democratic lean.
  • Libertarian/Free Stater Influence: The Free State Project, active since 2001, has drawn thousands of libertarians to New Hampshire, influencing local politics and fostering distrust of electronic voting. The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire endorsed Trump in 2024, despite nominating Chase Oliver, reflecting a pragmatic alignment with GOP priorities.
  • Voter Demographics: New Hampshire’s electorate includes a significant number of undeclared (independent) voters, who can vote in either party’s primary. In 2024, over 40% of GOP primary voters were undeclared, contributing to a moderate electorate that may favor Democrats federally.
  • NHGOP Perspective: The New Hampshire Republican Party has criticized Democratic federal dominance, with leaders like Chris Ager attributing state-level success to Ayotte’s coattails and national GOP trends. They’ve also pushed back against Democratic policies, but there’s no direct NHGOP claim of voting machine fraud in recent statements.
• Counterpoint: The political split is better explained by voter behavior and structural factors than fraud:
  • Ticket-Splitting: New Hampshire voters have a history of balancing state and federal representation, electing moderate Republicans like Ayotte and Sununu while supporting Democrats like Pappas and Shaheen.
  • Candidate Quality: Democratic incumbents like Pappas have strong name recognition and cross-party appeal, while GOP challengers (e.g., Russell Prescott, Lily Tang Williams) have struggled to overcome this.
  • National Trends: The 2024 election saw a national shift toward Republicans, but New Hampshire’s federal races remained Democratic, consistent with its recent history, not necessarily indicative of fraud.
  • No Fraud Allegations in 2024: Unlike 2020, there are no prominent claims of machine fraud in New Hampshire’s 2024 federal races, reducing the immediate relevance of this angle.

4. Broader Context of Voting Machine Fraud Allegations

• Dominion Controversies:
  • Post-2020, Dominion faced baseless claims of vote-flipping tied to foreign interference (e.g., Venezuela, China), amplified by Trump and allies. These were debunked by CISA, hand recounts, and lawsuits (e.g., Dominion’s defamation suits against Sidney Powell and others).
  • In New Hampshire, the Windham incident fueled similar narratives, with X posts claiming Dominion machines systematically undercounted Republicans. These claims overstated the issue, as the error was mechanical and corrected via recount.
• Election Security:
  • A 2019 Brennan Center report noted progress in securing voting machines since 2016 but highlighted New Hampshire’s lack of mandatory post-election audits as a vulnerability.
  • A 2024 POLITICO investigation found security bugs in a New Hampshire voter registration database (not voting machines), built with overseas subcontractors, raising supply-chain concerns. However, these were resolved before use, and no voting machine breaches were reported.
• Public Sentiment: Some New Hampshire voters, influenced by libertarian and “election integrity” movements, distrust voting machines, favoring hand counts. Protests against Dominion during the 2023 certification reflect this, though the state’s paper-based system mitigates risks.

Building Your Case: Key Leads and Challenges

Leads to Pursue

1. Windham 2020 Audit:
   • Obtain the full audit report from the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office to scrutinize the methodology and findings. Look for any unresolved questions about the ballot-fold issue or machine calibration.
   • Interview Windham election officials and auditors to probe whether the explanation (folds) fully accounts for the discrepancy or if software issues were downplayed.
2. Dominion’s Role:
   • Investigate Dominion’s servicing of AccuVote machines pre-2023 and the transition to ImageCast. Request records from LHS Associates on maintenance logs or reported errors.
   • Compare Dominion’s proprietary software with VotingWorks’ open-source code. Public access to VotingWorks’ code could highlight transparency gaps in Dominion’s system.
3. Voter Data Anomalies:
   • Analyze precinct-level vote totals from 2016, 2020, and 2024 federal elections, focusing on congressional races. Look for statistical irregularities (e.g., unexpected Democratic overperformance in specific towns) that could suggest machine errors.
   • Cross-reference machine-counted vs. hand-counted towns to identify discrepancies. Some New Hampshire towns hand-count ballots, offering a control group.
4. Free Stater/Libertarian Influence:
   • Contact Free State Project leaders or Libertarian Party officials to gauge their views on voting machines and any evidence of fraud they’ve documented. Their distrust of machines could yield anecdotal leads.
5. NHGOP Claims:
   • Reach out to NHGOP Chairman Chris Ager or Jim MacEachern for statements on election integrity. While they’ve focused on policy critiques, they may have data on voter concerns or irregularities.
6. Public Records Requests:
   • File requests with the New Hampshire Secretary of State for machine testing records, audit reports, and complaints about Dominion or AccuVote performance since 2016.
   • Request 2024 election data, including machine vs. hand-count breakdowns, to compare federal and state race outcomes.

Challenges to Overcome

1. Lack of Evidence for Fraud:
   • The Windham incident, the strongest case for machine error, was attributed to a mechanical issue, not intentional fraud. No other major incidents have been documented in New Hampshire.
   • Nationwide, Dominion-related fraud claims have been debunked, and New Hampshire’s paper ballots and recount process make undetected fraud unlikely.
2. Political Split Explained:
   • Ticket-splitting, gerrymandering, and candidate appeal (e.g., Pappas’ coalition-building) provide plausible non-fraud explanations for the Democratic federal wins.
   • The state’s libertarian streak doesn’t necessarily translate to GOP federal votes, as moderates and independents lean Democratic in national races.
3. Robust Election System:
   • New Hampshire’s offline machines, paper ballots, and recount tradition reduce the risk of systemic fraud. The 2023 machine certifications included rigorous testing and security standards.
4. Limited 2024 Allegations:
   • Unlike 2020, there are no prominent fraud claims in New Hampshire’s 2024 elections, weakening the case for recent machine-based manipulation.
5. Skepticism vs. Proof:
   • Public distrust, amplified by X posts and “election integrity” groups, often relies on speculation rather than verifiable evidence. Claims like those in 2021 X posts exaggerate findings and lack substantiation.

Recommendations for Your Investigation

• Focus on Data: Obtain granular election data (e.g., town-level results, machine vs. hand-count comparisons) to test for anomalies. Statistical analysis could reveal patterns not explained by voter behavior.
• Interview Key Figures: Speak with Secretary of State David Scanlan, Windham auditors, Dominion representatives, and NHGOP leaders to probe for inconsistencies or unreported issues.
• Leverage Public Sentiment: The libertarian/Free Stater distrust of machines could provide allies or sources, but verify their claims rigorously to avoid amplifying misinformation.
• Examine Software: Investigate Dominion’s proprietary software for transparency gaps, using VotingWorks’ open-source model as a benchmark.
• Contextualize Findings: Even if you find machine errors, distinguish between mechanical issues and intentional fraud. The paper-based system makes large-scale fraud difficult to conceal.

Conclusion

New Hampshire’s “First in the Nation” status, use of Dominion-serviced AccuVote machines, and political split (Republican state control vs. Democratic federal delegation) make it an intriguing case for studying voting integrity. The Windham 2020 incident provides a concrete lead, but its explanation as a mechanical error, combined with the state’s robust paper-based system, challenges the fraud narrative. The state’s libertarian influence and NHGOP strength fuel skepticism, but ticket-splitting, gerrymandering, and Democratic candidate appeal offer plausible alternative explanations for the congressional outcomes.

To prove New Hampshire as “ground zero” for voting machine fraud, you’ll need to uncover new evidence of systemic machine manipulation that overrides voter intent, ideally tied to federal races. Current data leans against this, but pursuing the leads above—audit reports, voter data, and insider interviews—could uncover discrepancies. Be cautious of unverified claims, especially from X posts, and prioritize primary sources like election records and official statements.

If you need specific records, data analysis, or follow-up on a particular lead, let me know, and I can assist further!