AI and I: Takeaways from Latest UNH Secession Poll

The April 2025 Granite State Poll – NHExit report provides valuable insights into New Hampshire residents’ attitudes toward secession and independence. While the report indicates limited overall support for secession (only 12% support New Hampshire peacefully seceding), there are specific findings and demographic trends that can be leveraged to craft compelling arguments for advancing the independence agenda. Below are the top 10 arguments, grounded in the report’s data, designed to resonate with key groups and address potential concerns:

1. Appeal to Libertarian Values

• Data Point: Self-described libertarians show the highest support for both holding a vote (46% strongly or somewhat support) and for secession itself (significant support compared to other ideologies).
• Argument: New Hampshire’s strong libertarian streak, rooted in the “Live Free or Die” ethos, aligns with the idea of self-governance. Independence would allow the state to fully embrace individual liberty, free markets, and minimal government interference, free from federal overreach. Libertarians can be mobilized as a core base to champion this cause, emphasizing how secession would protect their values from federal policies they often oppose.

2. Highlight Support Among Newer Residents

• Data Point: Residents who have lived in New Hampshire for 20 years or less are more likely to support a vote on independence (e.g., 39% of those with 11-20 years support a vote) and secession itself.
• Argument: Many newer residents, particularly those drawn to New Hampshire for its low taxes and independent spirit, may feel less tied to the federal system. The independence movement can appeal to these “transplants” by framing secession as a way to preserve the state’s unique character against federal homogenization, emphasizing that New Hampshire could thrive as a sovereign entity.

3. Leverage Joe Rogan Listeners as a Vocal Advocacy Group

• Data Point: Listeners to the Joe Rogan Experience are significantly more likely to support both a vote (42% support) and secession (higher than the general population), and they are more aware of the 2022 secession amendment rejection (33% heard a lot or some).
• Argument: Joe Rogan’s audience, often skeptical of centralized authority and mainstream narratives, represents a culturally influential group. The independence movement can tap into this demographic through targeted media campaigns, podcasts, and social media, framing secession as a bold, anti-establishment move to reclaim local control and resist federal bureaucracy.

4. Emphasize Federal Debt as a Catalyst

• Data Point: 26% of residents (and 16% of secession opponents) say a federal debt exceeding $50 trillion would make them more likely to support secession.
• Argument: The ballooning federal debt, projected to reach unsustainable levels, threatens New Hampshire’s economic stability through potential tax hikes or inflation. Independence would allow the state to manage its own finances, avoid federal fiscal mismanagement, and maintain its low-tax model, appealing to fiscally conservative and debt-concerned residents.

5. Frame Secession as a Response to Federal Overreach in Crises

• Data Point: 24% of residents (16% of secession opponents) would be more likely to support secession if a war broke out between the U.S. and a powerful foreign country.
• Argument: Federal decisions, such as entering costly or unpopular wars, could drag New Hampshire into conflicts against its interests. Independence would grant the state neutrality or the ability to chart its own foreign policy, protecting residents from being pawns in federal geopolitical games. This argument can resonate with anti-war sentiments and those wary of federal power during crises.

6. Capitalize on Support for a Referendum

• Data Point: 21% of residents support holding a vote to gauge interest in independence, a higher percentage than those who support secession outright (12%).
• Argument: Advocating for a non-binding referendum is a low-risk way to advance the independence agenda. It appeals to democratic principles, allowing residents to express their views without committing to secession. This could build momentum, especially among the 9% who are neutral, and create a platform for public debate, potentially shifting opinions over time.

7. Target Non-Voters and Independents

• Data Point: Those who did not vote in 2024 (higher support for a vote and secession) and self-identified Independents (29% support a vote) are more open to independence than other groups.
• Argument: Non-voters and Independents may feel alienated from the federal political system, viewing it as unresponsive or corrupt. The independence movement can position itself as an alternative to the status quo, offering a vision of local governance that prioritizes New Hampshire’s needs over partisan gridlock in Washington, D.C.

8. Highlight California Secession Support to Normalize the Concept

• Data Point: 32% of residents believe California should secede, and among those who support New Hampshire’s secession, 64% also support California’s secession.
• Argument: The idea of secession is not unique to New Hampshire, as many residents see it as viable for other states like California. This can normalize the concept, reducing the perception of New Hampshire’s independence as radical. The movement can argue that secession is a growing trend, with New Hampshire leading the way as a small, manageable state well-suited for self-governance.

9. Address Conservative Hesitation with a Strategic Pivot

• Data Point: Conservative support for secession has dropped significantly since 2023 (only 8% support a vote, down from 29%), but conservatives are more likely to want New Hampshire to join the U.S. if it were independent (77% definitely or probably).
• Argument: To win over conservatives, who value national unity, the independence movement can frame secession as a last resort to preserve New Hampshire’s conservative values against federal policies (e.g., gun control, high taxes, or cultural shifts). Emphasizing local control and constitutional protections can appeal to their skepticism of centralized power while addressing their loyalty to the U.S.

10. Build a Coalition Around Contingent Support

• Data Point: Among secession opponents, 8-16% would be more likely to support secession under specific conditions (e.g., another state seceding, a state constitutional amendment, or majority voter support).
• Argument: The movement can focus on building a broad coalition by addressing these contingencies. For example, advocating for a state constitutional amendment or highlighting other states’ secession movements could sway undecided or soft opponents. This incremental approach can gradually increase support by showing that secession is a reasoned response to specific triggers, not an impulsive act.

Strategic Considerations

To maximize the effectiveness of these arguments:

• Focus on Key Demographics: Prioritize libertarians, newer residents, Joe Rogan listeners, non-voters, and Independents as primary targets for outreach, using tailored messaging that resonates with their values and media consumption habits.
• Use Media Platforms: Leverage podcasts, social media, and local outlets like New Hampshire Public Radio (30% of listeners heard about the 2022 amendment) to spread the message and engage younger and less politically active residents.
• Emphasize Practicality: Address concerns about economic viability and governance by highlighting New Hampshire’s small size, strong economy, and history of self-reliance, drawing parallels to successful small nations like Switzerland or Singapore.
• Mitigate Opposition: Acknowledge the strong opposition (76% oppose secession) by focusing on a referendum as a first step, framing it as a democratic exercise rather than an immediate push for secession.

By combining these arguments with a strategic campaign, the NHExit movement can build momentum, even in the face of significant opposition, by appealing to New Hampshire’s unique culture and the specific concerns of its residents.